Well, this is one of those stories that I would enjoy telling without needing to do any deeper analysis, just recounting exactly what happened, the characters involved, and the unusual outcome. However, the fun ended up being looking a little deeper and understanding the biases, mental shortcuts (heuristics), influence triggers, and other cognitive limitations (such as our faulty memory) that became the main protagonists of the story.

Let’s get to it.

Recently, two young men rang the intercom of my building, introduced themselves as federal police officers, and told the doorman that they needed to look at the garage because they were investigating a case of pedophilia. The doorman, without hesitation — motivated by one of the main triggers of influence and persuasion: that of authority — opened the building door and, in addition to accompanying the “federal police officers” on their visit to the garage, also allowed them access to a small notebook with the name, apartment number, and cell phone number of all the residents. After duly photographing everything, they simply left, without taking a penny.

At some point, the doorman began to think that the situation had been strange (after all, a pedophilia investigation in the garage probably didn’t make much sense, right?) and decided to send a WhatsApp message to the building superintendent. The superintendent agreed with the strangeness of the facts and forwarded the same message to the building manager, who, in turn, freaked out and made the following decision: to call all the residents and schedule an extraordinary meeting for that night.

As expected — since we are beings essentially driven by a huge aversion to loss (research indicates that the pain of losing something is 2.5 times more intense than the pleasure of gaining the same thing) — the meeting brought together practically all the condominium owners of the building.

From the perspective of behavioral sciences (and reflecting some time after the event), it is interesting to see how the assembly was dominated by confirmation bias:

Confirmation bias: distortion of reality that we make when we only seek facts that prove our view of a certain event and reject others that question its veracity.

The building manager, for example, opened the discussion by saying:

“Bandits disguised as federal police officers entered our building this afternoon after a very serious security failure by our doorman.”

From then on, the imminent robbery became a truth. The assembly turned into a great attempt to gather evidence to support this narrative:

• “They only came to get to know the property so they could actually plan the robbery. They will be back soon.”
• “Certainly. That’s why they took pictures of some cars in the garage.” (which generated even greater chaos in trying to find out which cars had been photographed).
• “I heard they also photographed the notebook with the names and phone numbers of the doormen. They want to study each of the residents better and define the right targets.”
• “I’m trying to remember children playing in the garage (since the doorman said it was a case of pedophilia), but I can’t remember.”
• “Since they showed their faces to the cameras, we should assume they’re going to send other people. They’re very well organized: there are those who plan and those who execute. They’re never the same people.”
• “If they were real federal police officers, they would have shown identification.”
  

A few weeks passed and nothing happened (apart from the financial and time investment). Life was almost back to normal… until the same “federal police officers” appeared again at the building, this time accompanied by many others. They rang the intercom and announced to the doorman:

“This is the Federal Police. We need to enter to execute a search and seizure warrant for fraud.” (Shockingly: due to a clear memory lapse, “fraud” had become “pedophilia”).

The doorman, incredulous at what was happening, reacted by shouting:

“You bandits, you bums, I’m calling the police! Nobody gets in here!”

General chaos. The federal police officers (who this time were actually real) began jumping over the building’s gates, to the despair of everyone passing by on the street. The scene led to the arrival of the Military Police in a matter of minutes, just to confirm the veracity of the facts. That’s right: the search and seizure operation took place, and the federal police officers left taking several boxes and documents from an investigated condominium resident.

Moral of the story: be very careful with confirmation bias during decision-making. Question the facts more. Always play devil’s advocate (or hire someone to do it). Think about hypotheses contrary to your own. Share with other people. Understand whether your perspective is truly valid or if you are merely acting as a puppet of your biases and emotions.

And, to conclude this article, the caretaker’s perspective on the whole mess: “Everyone thought the bandit was outside, but in reality, he was inside.”